Stop Horsing Around

Stop Horsing Around - Technology Levelling The Field

The white flag is raised – and they’re off! The biggest week of the year in the jumping racing calendar has just concluded – Cheltenham. Although its completion has divided opinion, we will leave that to the COVID-19 experts! A successful week for the Irish nonetheless, with 17 winners from 28 races. There’s nothing quite like beating the English on their own turf.

Horse racing for the average punter has always been seen as a fool’s game, unless you were ‘in-the-know’ or had an uncanny abundance of luck. Always quite an old-fashioned sport, it was simply a matter of opinion as to who the best horse is in a race. Although technology can’t account for all variables in a race, it can help us form a more educated opinion on a race. Most importantly, it can either confirm or disprove the visual impression we get from watching a race. Well then, how does it? It’s not a complex as one may think, in recent times some racing experts and professional punters have turned to time sectionals to greater understand races and the results they produce. The overall time of a race is not all that important, but it is how a race unfolds that matters.

In simple terms, if the first ¾’s of a race is run slowly, then it is likely for the last ¼ of the race to turn into a sprint as all the horses have saved energy in the early parts of the race. Conversely, if the first ¾’s of a race is run quickly, then it is likely for the last ¼ of the race to turn into a test of stamina as all the horses will have expended a lot of energy to this point. We can see this in the finishing speeds of a race, if greater than 100% (average speed of the race = 100%), then it has turned into a sprint, while if less than 100%, it has turned into a test of stamina. Hence, some horses will be suited better depending how a race is run.

Let’s look at an example. None better than the biggest race of the week - the Cheltenham Gold Cup, won by the Willie Mullins trained, Al Boum Photo. Coincidentally this horse won last years’ renewal of the race, let’s compare them! Please watch the two finishes below, make a judgement as to which looks more impressive to your eye.

2020 (Unknow, 2020):

2019 (Unknown, 2019):

His overall time was 12 seconds faster in 2019 and from a visual perspective he looked to win more impressively (Rowlands, 2020). Many pundits were underwhelmed by his performance this year as he only managed to win by a head even though he faced similar rivals. Has his ability regressed since last year? An aging champion? His last hurrah? Let’s look more closely.

As explained above, finishing speed allows us to determine how a race has been run. If FS% is below 100% then the race has been run at a high pace early on with stamina coming to the fore in the latter stages of the race. If FS% is greater than 100%, then the pace has been steady early on and resulted in a sprint to the finish. By looking at the time sectionals, we can see the 2019 renewal was run at a very high pace from the get-go resulting in a pace collapse in the latter stages of the race (finishing speed of 96.3%). This worked in Al Boum Photo’s favour as he is a stamina-laden horse and he was the only one that had enough in reserve to truck on up the infamous Cheltenham hill. Conversely, the 2020 renewal was run at a very steady pace early on, resulting in the last quarter of the race turning into an out-and-out sprint, with a very quick finishing speed of 108% which would not have suited Al Boum Photo, not known for his speed. It seems the other jockeys in the race imposed these clever tactics to try beat the defending champion.

Although the race was not run to suit Al Boum Photo this year, he showed his versatility and a potent turn of foot some thought he didn’t possess. With the aid of technology, although not visually impressive in this years’ renewal, Al Boum Photo may have put in his best performance to date in conditions that would not have suited. I certainly wouldn’t bet against him doing the treble in 2021!

Our eye can deceive us at times in many facets of life, but in this case horse racing! Technology can confirm or disprove what we see and is a tool not to be dismissed by the 21st century punter. Racing has been slow to modernise, but if it wishes to grow and continue to capture new audiences, it must embrace technology! Now, let’s go bash them bookies. Please gamble responsibly. We would like to thank the proud sponsors of this blog, Paddy Power…

Bibliography:

Rowlands, S., (March 2020). 'Sectional Spotlight'. At The Races - UK

Unknown. (March 2020). 'Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020'. Racing TV

Unknown. (March 2019). 'Cheltenham Gold Cup 2019'. Racing TV